今天Fanessay小编整理了一篇Assignment代写范文--The US trade deficit,本篇文章阐述的内容关于美国贸易逆差方面的内容。美国贸易逆差长期存在，并有扩大的趋势。第二次世界大战后，美国在1971第一次出现贸易逆差。1971年，美国的贸易赤字只有15亿美元。从那时起，它已经存在了很长时间，并一路攀升到1999年的2676亿美元的高峰。虽然金融危机后美国的贸易赤字有所下降，但由于种种原因，美国的贸易赤字规模并没有发生根本变化。本文主要从投资储蓄失衡、内外部结构调整不协调、产业结构失衡三个方面分析了美国贸易赤字长期存在的原因。
The us trade deficit has existed for a long time and is on a trend of expanding. After World War II, the United States first had a trade deficit in 1971. In 1971, the trade deficit of the United States was only 1.5 billion us dollars. Since then, it has existed for a long time and climbed all the way up to the peak of 267.6 billion us dollars in 1999. Although the us trade deficit has declined after the financial crisis, the scale of the us trade deficit has not changed fundamentally, for various reasons. This paper mainly analyzes the reasons for the long-term existence of the us trade deficit from three aspects: the imbalance of investment-savings, the uncoordinated internal and external structural adjustment and the imbalance of industrial structure.
Since 1971, the United States has ended its long-term trade surplus. In 2006, the United States trade deficit reached 856.755 billion us dollars, climbing to the historical peak. Although it fluctuated slightly during this period, it was on the whole expanding. With the outbreak of the financial tsunami in 2007, the us trade deficit has been reduced, but it has not been fundamentally reversed. The level of the deficit is still very high. The continuous huge trade deficit of the United States has become an important aspect of the imbalance of the world economy and an important source of risks for the world economy. For a long time, the us authorities and trade surplus countries have tried to take various measures to adjust the trade imbalance, but the size of the trade deficit is still on the rise. Therefore, the study of the us trade deficit has important practical significance.
Scholars at home and abroad have made a lot of studies on the causes of the trade deficit in the United States and analyzed the causes from various aspects. Mainly include the following views: double deficit said Feldstein, believes that the fiscal deficit is the fundamental cause of the U.S. trade deficit. Fiscal deficit means more government consumption. In order to prevent inflation, the government will not finance the deficit, thus causing interest rate rise, foreign capital inflow and dollar appreciation, and ultimately leading to trade deficit. However, during the Clinton administration, the us budget was in surplus, but it was precisely the period when the us trade deficit increased by a large margin. Currency manipulation says undervaluation by U.S. trading partners is a major cause of the U.S. trade deficit. Both Japan and Germany have experienced rapid real effective exchange rate appreciation, but this has not significantly changed their trade surplus with the United States; The difference in economic growth points out that the strong growth of the U.S. economy leads to the increase of its import demand, while the slow growth of other trading partners leads to the decline of U.S. exports, which ultimately leads to the U.S. trade deficit. Global savings glut said that east Asia's emerging economies of fast economic growth and the accumulation of a large number of foreign exchange reserves of the petroleum exporting countries into the United States, which makes the United States of real interest rates down, asset prices are rising, and the wealth effect generated by the rise in asset prices and leading to a fall in the saving rate, thus cause the trade deficit; The dollar privilege says scholars who hold this view believe that the United States has more soft constraints on international debt and that the vast majority of so-called external debt does not require actual resources to be repaid. As for the above explanations of the us trade deficit, from the previous three perspectives, it is obviously not in line with the reality that if the government fiscal deficit, exchange rate factors and differences in economic growth rate lead to the trade deficit, the result must be temporary. The fourth view overemphasizes the impact of external factors on the us economy. The fifth view is simply that the privilege of the dollar is a condition for the us trade deficit to be sustained and, to some extent, expanded.
In reality, from the perspective of the structure of the us trade deficit, the us trade deficit mainly comes from the trade in goods, among which the proportion of manufactured goods is large and the increase is the largest. The trade deficit of secondary primary products does not change much. The United States has a competitive advantage in trade in services, which has been running a surplus. Therefore, this paper believes that the above factors may affect the us trade balance to some extent, but the underlying reason for the continuous expansion of the us trade deficit is caused by its structural imbalance.
From the perspective of investment, the first trade deficit of the United States since 1971 marks the loss of the competitive advantage of traditional American industries. To this end, since the mid-1980s, the United States has carried out large-scale economic restructuring, reduced military expenditure, invested a large amount of funds in increasing investment in civil technology research and development, developed high-tech industries and transformed traditional industries to achieve industrial restructuring and upgrading. At the same time, the government also encourages enterprises to invest through tax cuts. In the 1990s, the United States began to have a new economy represented by information technology, with sustained economic growth, which also stimulated large-scale investment by enterprises.
In conclusion, on the one hand, the characteristics of the American consumer economy determine that the marginal propensity to consume in the United States is very high, and the savings rate must be insufficient. On the other hand, the economic restructuring and industrial upgrading of the United States require huge investment. The imbalance between demand and investment will inevitably lead to the us financing its internal demand gap through the trade deficit. At the same time, the strong economic and political power, the international division of labor, a high speed of economic growth, highly developed financial markets and the advantages of the center of international reserve currency status for $source continuously flows into the United States also attract external resources, create conditions for the internal imbalance of supply and demand balance, to make America's trade deficit can be sustained.
In the era of economic globalization, the adjustment of a country's internal economic structure is closely related to its external economic structure.
In the late 1960s, the American economy began to decline relatively. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, under the fierce competition from Japan, federal Germany and some developing countries, the international competitive advantage of the United States deteriorated sharply and the trade deficit rose sharply. Against this background, since the 1980s, the us economy has undergone the most profound structural adjustment and upgrading since the war. Through the adoption of strategic trade policy, increase investment in r&d to develop high technology industry, promote the enterprise merger and realize the rationalization of industrial organization, relying on venture capital and small business development of high technology, realized the high technology industry rapid development, but also promoted the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries such as cars, steel, the enterprise internal organization structure is more effective, significantly enhance the international competitiveness, America in the 20th century the golden age of economic growth. Strong economic growth in the United States has led to strong domestic investment and consumer demand. At the same time, the process of structural adjustment and upgrade in the United States, the United States part of the traditional labor intensive and capital intensive industry and east Asia home rich successful docking, cheap, high quality of labor force resources, developing countries to develop the general manufacturing and a large number of exports to the United States, meet the necessities of low-cost domestic demand and production inputs, promote the economy structure adjustment and upgrade; Other developed countries, including Japan and European countries, have slow economic restructuring, low capital formation rate of high-tech industries, and large amount of capital flows to the United States, thus meeting the needs of economic restructuring and expansion in the United States. The imbalance of structural adjustment between developing countries, the United States and other developed countries such as Japan and Europe aggravates the trade imbalance of the United States.
Driven by global capital and resources, the United States has successfully achieved economic restructuring and industrial upgrading, but it has also established high-tech industries with potential production capacity and production scale commensurate with the global market, far exceeding domestic demand and resulting in structural surplus. In other words, only the global market can absorb the actual production capacity and production scale formed by the high-tech industry in the United States.
Therefore, the global market size is required to upgrade and expand simultaneously with this adjustment process. If other countries can vigorously improve the existing industrial structure and develop emerging industries, take American high-tech products as intermediate inputs, and increase the demand for American high-tech products, a virtuous circle can be formed with the structural adjustment of the American economy to promote the trade balance of the United States.
However, this is only an ideal situation. In the real world, first of all, developed countries such as Japan and European countries are trapped in structural obstacles, with slow economic restructuring and little room for structural adjustment in the short term. The general manufacturing industry of emerging market countries is over-developed, and the whole economy is over-dependent on the general manufacturing industry. There is still an objective need to promote economic development by exporting to the United States. Moreover, economic restructuring involves multiple complex factors such as national income distribution, industrial restructuring, social security system and population composition, which is a long-term process and impossible to achieve in the short term.
On the other hand, the products produced by the high-tech industry, in addition to the machines and equipment in the physical form, are more intangible technologies, patents, standards, services and so on. In the international scope, the product realization link of high-tech industry is mainly manifested as technology transfer and sales. However, the global trade and investment rules formed in the Uruguay round in the early 1990s cannot guarantee that the profit distribution pattern in the process of technology dissemination is in favor of the United States. Therefore, the absence of new multilateral investment agreements and intellectual property rights agreements has a negative impact on the global technology diffusion process and greatly restricts the coordinated development of other countries and the economic structure of the United States.
From the above analysis, it can be seen that the imbalance and uncoordinated structural adjustment of the United States, emerging market countries and other developed countries is one of the reasons for the existence of the U.S. trade deficit production period.
After two oil crises in the 1970s, the international competitive advantage of the United States declined. Guided by neoliberal economic theories, the United States held high the banner of economic globalization and began large-scale industrial restructuring, gradually transferring a large number of manufacturing industries to developing countries. As a result, the proportion of the service industry in the national economy keeps rising, and the manufacturing industry shrinks correspondingly, resulting in hollowing out of the manufacturing industry. By 2007, the year before the financial crisis, the proportion of primary, secondary and tertiary industries in the United States was 1.2%, 20.9% and 77.9%, respectively. Serious imbalance in the structure of secondary and tertiary industries. This structure has also had a serious impact on the us trade balance.
The shrinking manufacturing industry means that the majority of ordinary consumer goods, manufactured goods and other goods in the United States are no longer produced in the United States, and they have to rely more on imports to meet the sharply increased consumer demand, and the foreign trade deficit is rapidly expanding. By 2008, the us had a surplus of 153.5 billion us dollars in trade in services and a deficit of 882.1 billion us dollars in trade in goods, accounting for 6.1% of GDP. At the same time, compared with goods, services have a low degree of tradable participation. Therefore, with the continuous adjustment of the industrial structure of the United States and the continuous increase of the proportion of service industry, the export volume per unit of the newly added GNP of the United States decreases correspondingly, and the export capacity of the United States will be further weakened and the deficit will be further expanded.
From the perspective of the interdependence between service industry and manufacturing industry, manufacturing industry is the material basis of service industry. The service industry mainly includes financial insurance, medical care, transportation, tourism and education industries. These industries have a strong dependence on the production of material products produced by the manufacturing industry. When the material products produced by the manufacturing industry of the United States cannot meet the needs of the production of the service industry, it is necessary to import a large number of such products. Such as financial insurance industry, communication and information equipment; Large buildings and leasing equipment in real estate and leasing industries; Replacement of parts and components for commercial service departments; Large quantities of valuable drugs and medical equipment in the medical sector; With the development of these sectors, the demand for iron and steel and means of transport will inevitably increase. But in the production of this kind of product manufacturing with the adjustment of industrial structure, many of the manufacturing or production links all transferred to overseas, the gradual improvement of the service industry proportion in the national economy in the United States, on the one hand, increased the demand for capital goods production support services, while on the other hand reduces the native American enterprise on the supply of the goods, therefore, can make up for the growing service sector through import capital goods supply and demand gap.
Along with the increase of the proportion of American service industry and the shrinking of manufacturing industry, American industry has transferred overseas. The overseas transfer of American industries is realized through the overseas investment of transnational corporations, which always has a negative impact on the trade deficit of the United States. On the one hand, the overseas direct investment of transnational corporations replaces the products exported from the host country to the home country to some extent, so it will reduce the export of the home country. On the other hand, it will increase the deficit by exporting to the home country through internal transactions of transnational corporations. Therefore, with the imbalance of American industrial structure, it is bound to stimulate the expansion of American trade deficit.
The adjustment of the industrial structure of the United States leads to the imbalance of the industrial structure, which increases the import of capital goods needed for the production of general manufacturing products and service industries, greatly affects the export capacity of the United States, and finally has an important impact on the trade deficit of the United States. Thus it can be seen that the imbalance of American industrial structure is the deep root of its trade deficit.
Since the oil crisis in the 1970s, the United States has continuously adjusted its structure to improve its international competitiveness, and the structural imbalance at different levels is the reason for the long-term existence of the U.S. trade deficit. The exchange rate, fiscal deficit, dollar standard and other reasons are only secondary or temporary reasons, which only contribute to the trade deficit of the United States. Therefore, to fundamentally eliminate the long-term trade deficit in the United States, it is necessary to correct the internal and external structural distortions of the United States, and realize the current imbalance of the internal and external structure.